New market research about wholesale market of frozen berries and our forecasts for prices trend 29.08.2009

The prices for all forest berries have considerably fallen in comparison with levels of 1st and 2nd quarters 2009. The prices for a bilberry were generated in the beginning of August on the average around 70-75 rub/kg of the pure frozen bilberry. The given prices are offered on the terms of shipment at own expense and an advance payment. Considerable influence on negative dynamics of the prices has rendered falling of demand both in home market, and in Europe. Besides, the competition to suppliers to Ukraine and Belarus has increased. The current situation in Finland where the bilberry average crop also was observed also has served its purpose. Volumes of preparations in connection with deterioration of a financial condition of the procuring companies have considerably fallen. There are bases to assume that since November, 2009 of the price for a bilberry are stabilised and will start to grow gradually in connection with possible growth of demand after considerable falling of the prices for this berry. As shows the analysis of last years, demand for berries considerably grows at falling of the prices for it more than in 1,5 times from the maximum observed in a current season. Maximum prices of a bilberry were generated in January-February at level 120-130 rbl./kg By the end of a season of sales, demand for a bilberry has fallen that has led to recoil of the prices at first to 110 rub/kg, gradually the prices have fallen to level 100 rbl./kg At once with the beginning of a season of the price for a bilberry 60-70 rbl./kg were generated at rather low levels We predict growth of demand for the frozen bilberry by December. The rise in prices is predicted by the same period to 90-100 rbl./kg The prices for a lingonberry also have considerably fallen in connection with demand falling. At present gathering of a new crop of a lingonberry has begun. Under our forecasts, the prices will be generated about 70-80 rub/kg for the frozen lingonberry. At a good harvest, this level can be generated below 70 rbl./kg Considerable influence on formation of the prices will to render volumes of import of the Chinese lingonberry. The further dynamics of the prices for a lingonberry is difficult to predict. The prices for a cranberry also have considerably fallen in comparison with maximum levels of the prices for the frozen cranberry in the last season of sales. At present, the prices are generated at level 65-80 rbl./kg In our opinion, it will not be a considerable instability of prices in a new season. As a whole, on forest berries the fair real prices at which average demand is usually observed at the same offer were generated. The prices for a strawberry in Poland were temporarily stabilised within 0.8-0.9 euros/kg of the frozen strawberry. It is still expected, that in the beginning of bulk sellings of a strawberry it will be new wave of rising prices in connection with decrease in volumes of preparations of frozen strawberries. Thus, quality of a strawberry on the contrary has a little worsened because of a high moisture at the moment of harvesting. The considerable part of a crop of a strawberry and has not been collected. The berry or remained on bushes, or has fallen because of constant rains, or has simply decayed. In Russia the prices for a strawberry vary after tendencies in Poland, and also in connection with changes of a parity of exchange rates rouble to euro. At present, the prices are in a stage of formation with the tendency to growth. The average wholesale price of a strawberry makes 55-60 rub/kg depending on delivery conditions. We predict a rise in prices traditionally in the beginning of November with growth of demand and sales of the frozen berries, vegetables and mushrooms. The prices for a cherry also were temporarily stabilised about 0.65-0.7 euros/kg of a cherry without a stone of the first class. Despite a cherry big crop in this season, the situation looks ambiguously. First, quality of a cherry also has decreased because of rains. It means that berries of 1 class will be made less. Secondly, also rather great volume of a cherry as remained on trees, and in a fresh kind has been processed on a concentrate as quality of a berry in such weather conditions approaches only for industrial processing. Average wholesale prices for the frozen cherry in Russia has started to show again moderate growth to treasured level 60 rbl./kg we Predict a rise in prices to 60 rub/kg during the period from the end of September till the end of October. At present, wholesales are carried out at level 55-60 rbl./kg The prices for a black currant after some falling in inter-season period, have started to grow again. The black currant becomes every year more and more popular berry among industrial and end users. In the Russian market of the price for a black currant have grown for the summer period with 60 to 70 rbl./kg Falling of the prices for the frozen currant it has been connected also with berry preparations in Russia. But it is rather small volumes of preparations and basically for sale in a fresh kind in the markets. The prices for a black currant in Russia were generated at new price levels of 65-70 rub/kg with the tendency of moderate growth. The prices for a blackberry also show moderate growth. Now the range of the average prices for the frozen blackberry is between 65-70 rbl./kg The prices for a raspberry gris continue to decrease in Poland. In the end of July of the price of the offer fluctuated in a range 1.6-2 euro/kg. Now this range has changed to 1.5-1.8 euros/kg. The prices for a raspberry extra are not generated yet. The basic crop of a raspberry is expected in September. The prices for the frozen vegetables also tend to moderate growth. The new prices are not generated yet.